VVV 完整分析报告
生成于 2026-07-16 03:45 CST · 捉妖器
10.97
-1.6% 24h
量 $19.3M
主跌·收网
继续做空
一、K线形态分析(近14日)
| 日期 | 开盘 | 最高 | 最低 | 收盘 | 涨跌 | 振幅 | 量 | 标注 |
|---|
| 07/02 | 13.3 | 13.76 | 12.63 | 13.42 | +0.9% | 8.9% | 2,125K | 十字星 长下影 |
| 07/03 | 13.42 | 14.19 | 13.06 | 13.08 | -2.5% | 8.7% | 1,944K | 长上影 ★新高 |
| 07/04 | 13.08 | 13.3 | 11.92 | 12.14 | -7.2% | 11.6% | 3,268K | |
| 07/05 | 12.14 | 12.36 | 11.22 | 11.97 | -1.4% | 10.1% | 2,791K | 长下影 |
| 07/06 | 11.97 | 12.27 | 11.32 | 11.51 | -3.9% | 8.4% | 2,206K | |
| 07/07 | 11.51 | 11.65 | 10.34 | 10.5 | -8.7% | 12.6% | 2,325K | |
| 07/08 | 10.5 | 11.82 | 10.32 | 11.43 | +8.9% | 14.6% | 2,346K | |
| 07/09 | 11.43 | 11.84 | 11.16 | 11.5 | +0.6% | 6.1% | 1,623K | 十字星 长上影 |
| 07/10 | 11.5 | 11.73 | 11.06 | 11.16 | -2.9% | 6.0% | 1,195K | |
| 07/11 | 11.16 | 11.2 | 10.31 | 10.48 | -6.1% | 8.6% | 1,407K | |
| 07/12 | 10.48 | 10.95 | 10.42 | 10.6 | +1.1% | 5.0% | 858K | 长上影 |
| 07/13 | 10.6 | 10.99 | 10.38 | 10.69 | +0.8% | 5.9% | 1,154K | 十字星 |
| 07/14 | 10.69 | 11.32 | 10.63 | 11.11 | +4.0% | 6.5% | 1,397K | |
| 07/15 | 11.11 | 11.27 | 10.43 | 10.97 | -1.3% | 8.0% | 1,613K | 长下影 |
二、持仓量(OI)趋势
| 日期 | OI | 日变化 |
|---|
| 06/16 | $20.8M | |
| 06/17 | $21.5M | +3.6% |
| 06/18 | $22.1M | +2.8% |
| 06/19 | $19.7M | -11.2% |
| 06/20 | $19.6M | -0.1% |
| 06/21 | $20.0M | +1.6% |
| 06/22 | $20.5M | +2.6% |
| 06/23 | $20.7M | +1.1% |
| 06/24 | $19.1M | -7.6% |
| 06/25 | $18.3M | -4.0% |
| 06/26 | $17.9M | -2.2% |
| 06/27 | $17.0M | -5.1% |
| 06/28 | $16.5M | -3.3% |
| 06/29 | $15.7M | -4.4% |
| 06/30 | $15.4M | -2.0% |
| 07/01 | $14.8M | -3.9% |
| 07/02 | $16.7M | +12.9% |
| 07/03 | $15.7M | -5.8% |
| 07/04 | $15.2M | -3.6% |
| 07/05 | $15.4M | +1.7% |
| 07/06 | $15.4M | -0.4% |
| 07/07 | $14.7M | -4.5% |
| 07/08 | $13.7M | -6.9% |
| 07/09 | $15.2M | +11.3% |
| 07/10 | $14.5M | -4.5% |
| 07/11 | $13.8M | -5.1% |
| 07/12 | $12.6M | -8.7% |
| 07/13 | $12.5M | -0.8% |
| 07/14 | $12.1M | -3.2% |
| 07/15 | $13.4M | +11.0% |
- 当前OI $13.4M,占近30日峰值的61%
- 近7天OI变化-12%
- 最近1日OI变化+11%
三、聪明钱 · 巨鲸 & 交易员调仓
| 时间 | 侧 | 多鲸 | 空鲸 | 多员 | 空员 | 多成本 | 空成本 |
|---|
| 07/12 08:54 | 多 | 42 | 62 | 99 | 125 | 10.53 | 10.7 |
| 07/12 14:07 | 多 | 42 | 63 | 97 | 124 | 10.61 | 10.69 |
| 07/12 19:07 | 多 | 47 | 58 | 106 | 111 | 10.67 | 10.76 |
| 07/13 00:36 | 空 | 71 | 35 | 136 | 85 | 10.71 | 10.77 |
| 07/13 06:36 | 空 | 64 | 40 | 116 | 102 | 10.64 | 10.75 |
| 07/13 13:07 | 空 | 57 | 55 | 115 | 130 | 10.59 | 10.59 |
| 07/13 19:07 | 多 | 57 | 63 | 122 | 135 | 10.68 | 10.63 |
| 07/14 00:52 | 多 | 60 | 60 | 127 | 133 | 10.67 | 10.65 |
| 07/14 06:52 | 多 | 63 | 58 | 128 | 139 | 11 | 10.9 |
| 07/14 13:22 | 空 | 58 | 59 | 136 | 119 | 10.82 | 11.02 |
| 07/14 18:52 | 空 | 58 | 57 | 134 | 113 | 10.8 | 10.94 |
| 07/15 00:52 | 空 | 47 | 68 | 112 | 131 | 10.97 | 11.1 |
| 07/15 07:07 | 空 | 40 | 82 | 110 | 167 | 11 | 11.19 |
| 07/15 12:52 | 空 | 37 | 59 | 106 | 126 | 10.86 | 10.99 |
| 07/15 19:36 | 空 | 56 | 41 | 118 | 123 | 10.75 | 10.91 |
- 数据跨度83小时(311个快照)
- 多头巨鲸 42→56(+14)
- 空头巨鲸 62→41(-21)
- 巨鲸转向多头——聪明钱看多
- 多头交易员 99→118(+19)
- 空头交易员 125→123(-2)
- 多头成本 10.53→10.75(+2.1%)
- 空头成本 10.7→10.91(+1.9%)
- 多头浮盈亏 +2.0%
- 空头浮盈亏 -0.6%
四、资金费率走势
| 时间 | 费率 | |
|---|
| 07/12 16:00 | 0.0050% | |
| 07/12 20:00 | 0.0050% | |
| 07/13 00:00 | 0.0049% | |
| 07/13 04:00 | 0.0050% | |
| 07/13 08:00 | 0.0050% | |
| 07/13 12:00 | 0.0050% | |
| 07/13 16:00 | 0.0045% | |
| 07/13 20:00 | 0.0050% | |
| 07/14 00:00 | 0.0050% | |
| 07/14 04:00 | 0.0050% | |
| 07/14 08:00 | 0.0050% | |
| 07/14 12:00 | 0.0050% | |
| 07/14 16:00 | 0.0050% | |
| 07/14 20:00 | 0.0050% | |
| 07/15 00:00 | 0.0045% | |
| 07/15 04:00 | 0.0050% | |
| 07/15 08:00 | 0.0050% | |
| 07/15 12:00 | 0.0050% | |
| 07/15 16:00 | 0.0050% | |
| 07/15 20:00 | 0.0022% | |
| 07/16 00:00 | 0.0050% | |
五、阶段研判 · 机会裁决
阶段主跌·收网
信号起始07-12 19:11 @ 10.835 · 至今+1.2%
置信度medium
空单目标仓位0%
机会裁决SHORT · 继续做空
周期第2轮 · 22.72×
垂直爆发已疯 (146%)
OI$13.4M (峰值60%)
距本轮峰值49.1% · 42天
二轮风险低 · 5%
价格可操纵度47%
深盘锚定53%
类比≈MERL 见顶后47天
30天腰斩概率12%
观察到的迹象
- 已暴涨又崩、还没死透:第2轮曾拉升23倍(垂直爆发146%),见顶后42天已崩49%,现价仍是最初起点的11.6倍
- 距本轮峰值49%,破位下行
- 费率已回中性/转正0.005%
- 近4h空头爆仓主导($0.12M,占61%)
- 二轮启动风险[低]≈5%:未见反弹动量,余震消退中
操作建议: 只观察、先不建仓:已暴涨崩过。盯它会不会再拉一轮(那是平空信号)还是彻底归零,别在这里追空(崩后反弹很容易把空单绞掉)
六、综合研判
信号统计: 1个看涨 vs 1个看跌
场景推演
继续下跌
OI持续崩+费率中性/正 → 持空
死猫跳反弹
技术性超跌反弹(1-3天)+OI未重建 → 反弹衰竭加空
二轮启动
OI重建+费率再转负+抬高低点 → 平空离场