SYN 完整分析报告
生成于 2026-07-16 03:38 CST · 捉妖器
0.2493
-5.0% 24h
量 $34.4M
余震
观望
一、K线形态分析(近14日)
| 日期 | 开盘 | 最高 | 最低 | 收盘 | 涨跌 | 振幅 | 量 | 标注 |
|---|
| 07/02 | 0.52831 | 0.62682 | 0.48224 | 0.51952 | -1.7% | 30.0% | 316,143K | 十字星 长上影 ★新高 |
| 07/03 | 0.51937 | 0.55176 | 0.44196 | 0.44583 | -14.2% | 24.8% | 196,141K | 中阴 |
| 07/04 | 0.44573 | 0.51558 | 0.33239 | 0.359 | -19.5% | 55.1% | 244,558K | 中阴 |
| 07/05 | 0.35908 | 0.445 | 0.30621 | 0.39545 | +10.1% | 45.3% | 331,833K | 中阳 |
| 07/06 | 0.39549 | 0.48 | 0.36201 | 0.37517 | -5.1% | 32.6% | 343,328K | 长上影 |
| 07/07 | 0.37516 | 0.38793 | 0.3324 | 0.3695 | -1.5% | 16.7% | 131,442K | 十字星 长下影 |
| 07/08 | 0.3692 | 0.4356 | 0.34467 | 0.3522 | -4.6% | 26.4% | 189,809K | 长上影 |
| 07/09 | 0.3524 | 0.386 | 0.3378 | 0.376 | +6.7% | 14.3% | 88,213K | |
| 07/10 | 0.376 | 0.3869 | 0.2777 | 0.3048 | -18.9% | 39.3% | 145,792K | 中阴 |
| 07/11 | 0.3048 | 0.315 | 0.2867 | 0.2935 | -3.7% | 9.9% | 90,481K | |
| 07/12 | 0.2934 | 0.3322 | 0.2914 | 0.3194 | +8.9% | 14.0% | 88,944K | |
| 07/13 | 0.3196 | 0.3245 | 0.2351 | 0.2435 | -23.8% | 38.0% | 140,676K | 大阴 |
| 07/14 | 0.2436 | 0.3182 | 0.2152 | 0.2728 | +12.0% | 47.9% | 271,050K | 中阳 |
| 07/15 | 0.2729 | 0.2836 | 0.2471 | 0.2493 | -8.6% | 14.8% | 114,528K | |
二、持仓量(OI)趋势
| 日期 | OI | 日变化 |
|---|
| 06/16 | $1.8M | |
| 06/17 | $1.6M | -11.5% |
| 06/18 | $4.6M | +191.8% |
| 06/19 | $12.2M | +166.4% |
| 06/20 | $11.3M | -7.8% |
| 06/21 | $8.9M | -20.9% |
| 06/22 | $12.1M | +35.3% |
| 06/23 | $25.6M | +112.5% |
| 06/24 | $22.0M | -14.2% |
| 06/25 | $28.9M | +31.5% |
| 06/26 | $20.1M | -30.4% |
| 06/27 | $18.7M | -6.9% |
| 06/28 | $15.3M | -18.4% |
| 06/29 | $19.0M | +24.1% |
| 06/30 | $29.2M | +53.8% |
| 07/01 | $29.8M | +2.3% |
| 07/02 | $28.0M | -6.2% |
| 07/03 | $27.1M | -3.1% |
| 07/04 | $23.7M | -12.5% |
| 07/05 | $19.3M | -18.8% |
| 07/06 | $20.5M | +6.1% |
| 07/07 | $19.7M | -3.5% |
| 07/08 | $20.1M | +1.8% |
| 07/09 | $18.5M | -7.8% |
| 07/10 | $20.3M | +9.6% |
| 07/11 | $16.6M | -18.3% |
| 07/12 | $16.2M | -2.4% |
| 07/13 | $16.8M | +3.8% |
| 07/14 | $12.8M | -24.1% |
| 07/15 | $14.4M | +12.6% |
- 当前OI $14.4M,占近30日峰值的48%
- 近7天OI变化-23%
- 最近1日OI变化+13%
三、聪明钱 · 巨鲸 & 交易员调仓
| 时间 | 侧 | 多鲸 | 空鲸 | 多员 | 空员 | 多成本 | 空成本 |
|---|
| 07/12 08:54 | 空 | 50 | 87 | 164 | 205 | 0.308955 | 0.306827 |
| 07/12 14:07 | 空 | 64 | 67 | 180 | 183 | 0.308986 | 0.311118 |
| 07/12 19:07 | 多 | 70 | 68 | 180 | 191 | 0.314337 | 0.314029 |
| 07/13 00:36 | 空 | 78 | 58 | 194 | 168 | 0.314293 | 0.316331 |
| 07/13 06:36 | 多 | 98 | 37 | 210 | 129 | 0.315772 | 0.318555 |
| 07/13 13:07 | 多 | 86 | 62 | 210 | 156 | 0.306147 | 0.310216 |
| 07/13 19:07 | 多 | 98 | 51 | 200 | 193 | 0.286217 | 0.291421 |
| 07/14 00:52 | 多 | 96 | 56 | 209 | 209 | 0.277662 | 0.282582 |
| 07/14 06:52 | 多 | 82 | 72 | 189 | 246 | 0.263357 | 0.270384 |
| 07/14 13:22 | 多 | 82 | 82 | 220 | 257 | 0.249389 | 0.26133 |
| 07/14 18:52 | 多 | 75 | 92 | 221 | 289 | 0.262335 | 0.265652 |
| 07/15 00:52 | 多 | 101 | 67 | 263 | 240 | 0.259525 | 0.273717 |
| 07/15 07:07 | 多 | 100 | 70 | 281 | 252 | 0.272261 | 0.27563 |
| 07/15 12:52 | 多 | 76 | 60 | 207 | 226 | 0.28125 | 0.276174 |
| 07/15 19:36 | 空 | 73 | 54 | 201 | 177 | 0.266594 | 0.267376 |
- 数据跨度83小时(311个快照)
- 多头巨鲸 50→73(+23)
- 空头巨鲸 87→54(-33)
- 巨鲸转向多头——聪明钱看多
- 多头交易员 164→201(+37)
- 空头交易员 205→177(-28)
- 多头成本 0.309→0.2666(-13.7%)
- 空头成本 0.3068→0.2674(-12.9%)
- 多头浮盈亏 -6.5%
- 空头浮盈亏 +6.8%
四、资金费率走势
| 时间 | 费率 | |
|---|
| 07/12 16:00 | 0.0050% | |
| 07/12 20:00 | 0.0050% | |
| 07/13 00:00 | 0.0050% | |
| 07/13 04:00 | 0.0050% | |
| 07/13 08:00 | 0.0050% | |
| 07/13 12:00 | 0.0050% | |
| 07/13 16:00 | 0.0035% | |
| 07/13 20:00 | 0.0034% | |
| 07/14 00:00 | -0.0041% | |
| 07/14 04:00 | -0.0035% | |
| 07/14 08:00 | 0.0034% | |
| 07/14 12:00 | 0.0039% | |
| 07/14 16:00 | 0.0018% | |
| 07/14 20:00 | 0.0020% | |
| 07/15 00:00 | 0.0050% | |
| 07/15 04:00 | 0.0050% | |
| 07/15 08:00 | 0.0050% | |
| 07/15 12:00 | 0.0046% | |
| 07/15 16:00 | 0.0050% | |
| 07/15 20:00 | 0.0038% | |
| 07/16 00:00 | 0.0044% | |
五、阶段研判 · 机会裁决
阶段余震
信号起始07-12 20:07 @ 0.3251 · 至今-23.3%
置信度medium
空单目标仓位30%
机会裁决WATCH · 观望
周期第3轮 · 25.64×
垂直爆发已疯 (106%)
OI$14.4M (峰值48%)
距本轮峰值65.6% · 15天
二轮风险低 · 5%
价格可操纵度23%
深盘锚定77%
类比≈ALCH 见顶前36天
30天腰斩概率25%
观察到的迹象
- 距本轮峰值66%,见顶后15天,进入余震绞肉区
- 近4h多头爆仓主导($0.07M,占57%)
- 二轮启动风险[低]≈5%:未见反弹动量,余震消退中
操作建议: 余震绞肉区,无明确方向/接近死透,观望
六、综合研判
信号统计: 1个看涨 vs 0个看跌
场景推演
余震归零
持续阴跌+OI不重建 → 持底仓空
二轮拉升
OI爆炸式重建+垂直反弹 → 立即平空