MAGMA 完整分析报告
生成于 2026-07-16 03:44 CST · 捉妖器
0.30899
+17.4% 24h
量 $35.5M
余震
平空/勿追空
一、K线形态分析(近14日)
| 日期 | 开盘 | 最高 | 最低 | 收盘 | 涨跌 | 振幅 | 量 | 标注 |
|---|
| 07/02 | 0.38034 | 0.5859 | 0.37359 | 0.53358 | +40.3% | 56.8% | 119,858K | 大阳 |
| 07/03 | 0.53358 | 0.83581 | 0.48245 | 0.80379 | +50.6% | 73.2% | 374,106K | 放量 大阳 ★新高 |
| 07/04 | 0.80374 | 0.82555 | 0.50111 | 0.56978 | -29.1% | 64.7% | 230,402K | 大阴 |
| 07/05 | 0.56981 | 0.58479 | 0.44945 | 0.48496 | -14.9% | 30.1% | 92,148K | 中阴 |
| 07/06 | 0.48494 | 0.51113 | 0.434 | 0.44325 | -8.6% | 17.8% | 28,495K | 缩量 |
| 07/07 | 0.44322 | 0.44606 | 0.318 | 0.35952 | -18.9% | 40.3% | 77,514K | 中阴 |
| 07/08 | 0.35951 | 0.41287 | 0.311 | 0.36044 | +0.3% | 32.8% | 58,619K | 十字星 长上影 |
| 07/09 | 0.36043 | 0.44567 | 0.3508 | 0.44537 | +23.6% | 27.0% | 48,519K | 大阳 |
| 07/10 | 0.44518 | 0.44999 | 0.38188 | 0.41759 | -6.2% | 17.8% | 28,854K | 缩量 长下影 |
| 07/11 | 0.41756 | 0.42759 | 0.36 | 0.39205 | -6.1% | 18.8% | 19,393K | 缩量 |
| 07/12 | 0.39205 | 0.52985 | 0.30809 | 0.32193 | -17.9% | 72.0% | 164,882K | 中阴 长上影 |
| 07/13 | 0.32194 | 0.37765 | 0.2924 | 0.29967 | -6.9% | 29.2% | 87,166K | 长上影 |
| 07/14 | 0.29981 | 0.30795 | 0.24432 | 0.27687 | -7.7% | 26.0% | 142,959K | 长下影 |
| 07/15 | 0.27665 | 0.32448 | 0.27563 | 0.30899 | +11.7% | 17.7% | 106,996K | 中阳 |
二、持仓量(OI)趋势
| 日期 | OI | 日变化 |
|---|
| 06/16 | $7.9M | |
| 06/17 | $7.4M | -6.6% |
| 06/18 | $10.9M | +48.2% |
| 06/19 | $8.0M | -26.8% |
| 06/20 | $8.0M | -0.2% |
| 06/21 | $7.8M | -2.4% |
| 06/22 | $10.0M | +27.9% |
| 06/23 | $8.0M | -19.7% |
| 06/24 | $7.3M | -8.9% |
| 06/25 | $7.1M | -1.9% |
| 06/26 | $7.3M | +2.3% |
| 06/27 | $11.8M | +61.8% |
| 06/28 | $9.2M | -21.8% |
| 06/29 | $8.1M | -12.9% |
| 06/30 | $8.1M | +0.5% |
| 07/01 | $7.6M | -6.5% |
| 07/02 | $6.5M | -14.5% |
| 07/03 | $10.5M | +63.0% |
| 07/04 | $23.4M | +122.0% |
| 07/05 | $13.0M | -44.3% |
| 07/06 | $10.1M | -22.5% |
| 07/07 | $8.6M | -14.6% |
| 07/08 | $6.7M | -23.0% |
| 07/09 | $6.2M | -7.5% |
| 07/10 | $7.6M | +23.8% |
| 07/11 | $6.9M | -9.9% |
| 07/12 | $6.4M | -6.7% |
| 07/13 | $5.8M | -8.9% |
| 07/14 | $5.2M | -10.5% |
| 07/15 | $5.5M | +4.8% |
- 当前OI $5.5M,占近30日峰值的23%
- 近7天OI变化-11%
- 最近1日OI变化+5%
- 4h粒度:近24h OI加速上涨+12%
三、聪明钱 · 巨鲸 & 交易员调仓
| 时间 | 侧 | 多鲸 | 空鲸 | 多员 | 空员 | 多成本 | 空成本 |
|---|
| 07/12 08:54 | 多 | 45 | 38 | 124 | 107 | 0.393621 | 0.389565 |
| 07/12 14:07 | 多 | 43 | 39 | 100 | 120 | 0.409928 | 0.421341 |
| 07/12 19:07 | 空 | 47 | 56 | 186 | 199 | 0.424671 | 0.485176 |
| 07/13 00:36 | 空 | 50 | 57 | 188 | 214 | 0.339711 | 0.489004 |
| 07/13 06:36 | 空 | 45 | 63 | 203 | 210 | 0.372265 | 0.501709 |
| 07/13 13:07 | 空 | 62 | 55 | 230 | 218 | 0.296681 | 0.490106 |
| 07/13 19:07 | 多 | 52 | 57 | 161 | 172 | 0.332662 | 0.355146 |
| 07/14 00:52 | 多 | 44 | 64 | 141 | 185 | 0.341427 | 0.348722 |
| 07/14 06:52 | 空 | 37 | 63 | 131 | 171 | 0.343044 | 0.339571 |
| 07/14 13:22 | 空 | 47 | 55 | 170 | 187 | 0.287505 | 0.314532 |
| 07/14 18:52 | 多 | 60 | 42 | 195 | 161 | 0.272451 | 0.280943 |
| 07/15 00:52 | 多 | 39 | 63 | 164 | 189 | 0.267968 | 0.281862 |
| 07/15 07:07 | 多 | 46 | 63 | 179 | 220 | 0.275769 | 0.277279 |
| 07/15 12:52 | 多 | 39 | 51 | 147 | 166 | 0.273404 | 0.27894 |
| 07/15 19:36 | 多 | 40 | 50 | 127 | 153 | 0.29439 | 0.308903 |
- 数据跨度83小时(311个快照)
- 多头巨鲸 45→40(-5)
- 空头巨鲸 38→50(+12)
- 巨鲸从多头转向空头——聪明钱在赌反转
- 多头交易员 124→127(+3)
- 空头交易员 107→153(+46)
- 多头成本 0.3936→0.2944(-25.2%)
- 空头成本 0.3896→0.3089(-20.7%)
- 多头浮盈亏 +5.0%
- 空头浮盈亏 -0.0%
四、资金费率走势
| 时间 | 费率 | |
|---|
| 07/12 16:00 | 0.0050% | |
| 07/12 20:00 | 0.0164% | |
| 07/13 00:00 | 0.0553% | |
| 07/13 04:00 | 0.0050% | |
| 07/13 08:00 | 0.0050% | |
| 07/13 12:00 | 0.0050% | |
| 07/13 16:00 | 0.0050% | |
| 07/13 20:00 | 0.0050% | |
| 07/14 00:00 | 0.0050% | |
| 07/14 04:00 | 0.0050% | |
| 07/14 08:00 | 0.0050% | |
| 07/14 12:00 | 0.0050% | |
| 07/14 16:00 | 0.0050% | |
| 07/14 20:00 | 0.0050% | |
| 07/15 00:00 | 0.0050% | |
| 07/15 04:00 | 0.0050% | |
| 07/15 08:00 | 0.0050% | |
| 07/15 12:00 | 0.0189% | |
| 07/15 16:00 | 0.0090% | |
| 07/15 20:00 | 0.0128% | |
| 07/16 00:00 | 0.0058% | |
五、阶段研判 · 机会裁决
阶段余震
信号起始07-13 01:32 @ 0.37541 · 至今-17.7%
置信度medium
空单目标仓位0%
机会裁决COVER · 平空/勿追空
周期第1轮 · 10.03×
垂直爆发已疯 (88%)
OI$5.5M (峰值23%)
距本轮峰值63.0% · 12天
二轮风险低 · 5%
价格可操纵度100%
深盘锚定0%
类比≈JELLYJELLY 见顶后17天
30天腰斩概率25%
观察到的迹象
- 已暴涨又崩、还没死透:第1轮曾拉升10倍(垂直爆发88%),见顶后12天已崩63%,现价仍是最初起点的3.7倍
- 距本轮峰值63%,见顶后12天,进入余震绞肉区
- 近4h多头爆仓主导($0.07M,占67%)
- 二轮启动风险[低]≈5%:未见反弹动量,余震消退中
操作建议: OI在重建(逼空重启),不是纯反弹——手法反转,该平掉空单观望
六、综合研判
信号统计: 3个看涨 vs 1个看跌
看涨信号
- 阳线吞噬前日阴线(看涨反转)
- 4h粒度:近24h OI加速上涨+12%
- 阶段裁决:平空/勿追空
场景推演
余震归零
持续阴跌+OI不重建 → 持底仓空
二轮拉升
OI爆炸式重建+垂直反弹 → 立即平空