ALLO 完整分析报告
生成于 2026-07-16 03:43 CST · 捉妖器
0.40298
+11.6% 24h
量 $71.1M
主跌·收网
死猫跳·做空机会
一、K线形态分析(近14日)
| 日期 | 开盘 | 最高 | 最低 | 收盘 | 涨跌 | 振幅 | 量 | 标注 |
|---|
| 07/02 | 0.2264 | 0.3674 | 0.22389 | 0.33996 | +50.2% | 64.1% | 433,398K | 大阳 |
| 07/03 | 0.33997 | 0.38768 | 0.32123 | 0.34992 | +2.9% | 20.7% | 463,465K | 十字星 长上影 |
| 07/04 | 0.34991 | 0.37395 | 0.32568 | 0.35098 | +0.3% | 14.8% | 153,691K | 十字星 长下影 |
| 07/05 | 0.35097 | 0.38379 | 0.34606 | 0.36481 | +3.9% | 10.9% | 86,883K | 长上影 |
| 07/06 | 0.36471 | 0.4293 | 0.33586 | 0.42216 | +15.8% | 27.8% | 167,281K | 中阳 |
| 07/07 | 0.42199 | 0.43947 | 0.39421 | 0.39802 | -5.7% | 11.5% | 167,323K | |
| 07/08 | 0.39804 | 0.42098 | 0.3643 | 0.41488 | +4.2% | 15.6% | 112,245K | 长下影 |
| 07/09 | 0.41488 | 0.45906 | 0.3914 | 0.43652 | +5.2% | 17.3% | 125,771K | |
| 07/10 | 0.43652 | 0.445 | 0.39736 | 0.40333 | -7.6% | 12.0% | 60,596K | 缩量 |
| 07/11 | 0.40333 | 0.42524 | 0.35712 | 0.36331 | -9.9% | 19.1% | 68,221K | |
| 07/12 | 0.36331 | 0.39468 | 0.33407 | 0.37319 | +2.7% | 18.1% | 141,679K | |
| 07/13 | 0.37319 | 0.53302 | 0.37135 | 0.47273 | +26.7% | 43.5% | 414,382K | 大阳 ★新高 |
| 07/14 | 0.47274 | 0.47722 | 0.35621 | 0.3626 | -23.3% | 34.0% | 276,188K | 大阴 |
| 07/15 | 0.36253 | 0.41623 | 0.353 | 0.40298 | +11.2% | 17.9% | 166,682K | 中阳 |
二、持仓量(OI)趋势
| 日期 | OI | 日变化 |
|---|
| 06/16 | $21.1M | |
| 06/17 | $20.6M | -2.6% |
| 06/18 | $20.1M | -2.5% |
| 06/19 | $21.4M | +6.7% |
| 06/20 | $21.5M | +0.6% |
| 06/21 | $21.7M | +0.6% |
| 06/22 | $21.3M | -1.7% |
| 06/23 | $23.2M | +9.0% |
| 06/24 | $22.6M | -2.3% |
| 06/25 | $21.4M | -5.4% |
| 06/26 | $20.6M | -3.8% |
| 06/27 | $17.3M | -16.1% |
| 06/28 | $19.5M | +12.7% |
| 06/29 | $18.6M | -4.7% |
| 06/30 | $17.9M | -3.8% |
| 07/01 | $15.3M | -14.2% |
| 07/02 | $13.7M | -10.9% |
| 07/03 | $20.8M | +52.2% |
| 07/04 | $20.9M | +0.4% |
| 07/05 | $20.4M | -2.2% |
| 07/06 | $21.1M | +3.1% |
| 07/07 | $23.7M | +12.7% |
| 07/08 | $21.2M | -10.6% |
| 07/09 | $21.6M | +2.1% |
| 07/10 | $23.7M | +9.5% |
| 07/11 | $21.2M | -10.6% |
| 07/12 | $19.3M | -9.0% |
| 07/13 | $20.1M | +4.4% |
| 07/14 | $30.8M | +52.9% |
| 07/15 | $21.2M | -31.3% |
- 当前OI $21.2M,占近30日峰值的69%
- 近7天OI变化-2%
- 最近1日OI变化-31%
- 4h粒度:近24h OI加速上涨+10%
三、聪明钱 · 巨鲸 & 交易员调仓
| 时间 | 侧 | 多鲸 | 空鲸 | 多员 | 空员 | 多成本 | 空成本 |
|---|
| 07/12 08:54 | 空 | 75 | 63 | 136 | 214 | 0.361873 | 0.368831 |
| 07/12 14:07 | 空 | 75 | 69 | 170 | 218 | 0.359613 | 0.364802 |
| 07/12 19:07 | 空 | 66 | 75 | 165 | 227 | 0.358976 | 0.361136 |
| 07/13 00:36 | 多 | 70 | 77 | 206 | 190 | 0.357095 | 0.356874 |
| 07/13 06:36 | 空 | 56 | 91 | 191 | 218 | 0.364076 | 0.366982 |
| 07/13 13:07 | 多 | 84 | 71 | 243 | 188 | 0.381369 | 0.384414 |
| 07/13 19:07 | 多 | 84 | 88 | 292 | 311 | 0.428457 | 0.433545 |
| 07/14 00:52 | 多 | 91 | 90 | 293 | 398 | 0.448395 | 0.442493 |
| 07/14 06:52 | 多 | 107 | 80 | 309 | 402 | 0.450887 | 0.444881 |
| 07/14 13:22 | 空 | 108 | 85 | 301 | 461 | 0.469309 | 0.431116 |
| 07/14 18:52 | 空 | 119 | 71 | 331 | 369 | 0.44818 | 0.416712 |
| 07/15 00:52 | 空 | 100 | 83 | 324 | 289 | 0.398511 | 0.396707 |
| 07/15 07:07 | 空 | 98 | 74 | 279 | 271 | 0.369915 | 0.379223 |
| 07/15 12:52 | 多 | 66 | 76 | 192 | 228 | 0.367314 | 0.369028 |
| 07/15 19:36 | 多 | 78 | 74 | 224 | 232 | 0.381323 | 0.376527 |
- 数据跨度83小时(311个快照)
- 多头巨鲸 75→78(+3)
- 空头巨鲸 63→74(+11)
- 多头交易员 136→224(+88)
- 空头交易员 214→232(+18)
- 多头成本 0.3619→0.3813(+5.4%)
- 空头成本 0.3688→0.3765(+2.1%)
- 多头浮盈亏 +5.7%
- 空头浮盈亏 -7.0%
四、资金费率走势
| 时间 | 费率 | |
|---|
| 07/12 16:00 | 0.0030% | |
| 07/12 20:00 | 0.0050% | |
| 07/13 00:00 | 0.0050% | |
| 07/13 04:00 | 0.0050% | |
| 07/13 08:00 | 0.0050% | |
| 07/13 12:00 | 0.0050% | |
| 07/13 16:00 | 0.0050% | |
| 07/13 20:00 | 0.0050% | |
| 07/14 00:00 | 0.0050% | |
| 07/14 04:00 | 0.0050% | |
| 07/14 08:00 | 0.0050% | |
| 07/14 12:00 | 0.0050% | |
| 07/14 16:00 | 0.0050% | |
| 07/14 20:00 | 0.0010% | |
| 07/15 00:00 | -0.0010% | |
| 07/15 04:00 | -0.0052% | |
| 07/15 08:00 | -0.0073% | |
| 07/15 12:00 | -0.0024% | |
| 07/15 16:00 | 0.0050% | |
| 07/15 20:00 | 0.0050% | |
| 07/16 00:00 | 0.0050% | |
五、阶段研判 · 机会裁决
阶段主跌·收网
信号起始07-14 12:06 @ 0.3906 · 至今+3.1%
置信度high
空单目标仓位0%
机会裁决SHORT · 死猫跳·做空机会
周期第1轮 · 10.77×
垂直爆发已疯 (204%)
OI$21.2M (峰值69%)
距本轮峰值28.1% · 37天
价格可操纵度26%
深盘锚定74%
类比≈TAG 见顶前42天
30天腰斩概率0%
观察到的迹象
- 已暴涨又崩、还没死透:第1轮曾拉升11倍(垂直爆发204%),见顶后37天已崩28%,现价仍是最初起点的7.7倍
- 距本轮峰值28%,破位下行
- 费率已回中性/转正0.005%
- 近4h多头爆仓主导($0.40M,占59%)
操作建议: 只观察、先不建仓:已暴涨崩过。盯它会不会再拉一轮(那是平空信号)还是彻底归零,别在这里追空(崩后反弹很容易把空单绞掉)
六、综合研判
信号统计: 1个看涨 vs 1个看跌
场景推演
继续下跌
OI持续崩+费率中性/正 → 持空
死猫跳反弹
技术性超跌反弹(1-3天)+OI未重建 → 反弹衰竭加空
二轮启动
OI重建+费率再转负+抬高低点 → 平空离场